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Uncertainty and CEO Overconfidence
Overconfidence is not a personality flaw. It's a measurable business risk. University of Chicago Booth research found that less talented CEOs over-promise, under-listen, chase vanity projects, and abandon strategies the moment short-term results disappoint. In good times, rising tides hide a lot of leadership sins. Downturns wash them out into plain view. The good news: the habits that separate skilled CEOs from overconfident ones are learnable, if you are willing to see your

Dr. David Macauley
5 min read


Business Cycles and Zero Sum Thinking
Economic downturns don't just shrink revenue, they quietly reshape how people think. Research across 51 countries and nearly 60,000 respondents shows downturns trigger zero-sum thinking: the belief that someone else has to lose for you to win. Collaboration collapses at exactly the moment leaders need it most. Here's how to name the pull, disarm it, and keep your team playing an infinite game.

Dr. David Macauley
6 min read


Before You Cut Staff: 4 Research-Backed Strategies for Surviving a Downturn
When revenue contracts, the default reflex is layoffs. But research from Harvard Business Review and the BCG Henderson Institute tells a different story: companies that prepared, tightened operations, protected cash, and invested for growth outperformed their peers by double digits coming out of the Great Recession, often without resorting to cuts. Here are the four strategies, and why cutting staff belongs last in the leadership toolkit, not first.

Dr. David Macauley
9 min read


Why did it take a virus for work to go remote?
Why did it take a pandemic to make remote work mainstream? Before COVID-19, remote work had grown 91% in a decade and 80-90% of US workers wanted it — yet only 3-16% actually did it on any given day. The barriers weren't technological. They were habit, managerial distrust, and quiet assumptions about what productive work looks like. The companies that use this moment to examine those assumptions will emerge stronger than they went in.

Dr. David Macauley
13 min read
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